In the early 1990s, a sudden gust of wind blew away the cold war cloud that had hung over Europe for decades. However, European politicians are not relieved by the end of the Cold War. They think that Europe seems to be facing new uncertainties — — — The unification of Germany and Germany. Perhaps because of the two world wars, the pain brought by Germany to this land is unforgettable; Or Germany, whose population and economy once again became the first in Europe at that time, made other European countries really feel the new threat. With the purpose of permanently eliminating the threat of Germany and the vision of promoting common prosperity in Europe, leaders from 12 western European countries came to Maastricht, the Dutch town, on December 9 and 10, 1991, and signed the famous Treaty on European Union. Since then, the EU has entered the stage of history.
Just over 200 kilometers away from Maastricht, there is a small town in Germany — — — Munster More than 300 years ago, one of the most influential treaties in human history — — — Treaty of Westphalia. It not only marked the end of the Thirty Years’ War, but also was regarded by historians and political scientists as "the beginning of the nation-state". And 300 years later, the birth of the European Union is regarded as a great attempt to dissolve the nation-state. Twenty-five years have passed, and the EU has experienced the scenery of countries competing to join the EU and the economic crisis, but this organization has never been as dangerous as it was in 2016.
The confusion of refugees
Strictly speaking, refugees are not a problem that the EU encountered only in 2016. From the figures alone, millions of refugees arrived in Europe in 2015, far more than in 2016, but at that time, the European people were busy turning their accumulated humanitarian feelings into real flowers and applause, welcoming those suffering from afar. Although scholars at that time began to worry that a large number of refugees would cause great pressure on Europe’s economy and society, and the mixed individual terrorists would pose a fatal threat to Europe. However, in the face of the warm picture of German volunteers hugging refugees at Munich station, these views can only be reduced to a tributary.
Time has not only accumulated more and more refugees, but also killed the enthusiasm of Europeans for refugees. In 2016, Europeans finally discovered that refugees have really become a thorny issue. Many people began to complain that refugees consumed too much taxpayers’ money. The calculations of the famous Cologne Economic Research Institute and Kiel World Economic Research Institute in Germany show that the German government will spend 50 billion euros on resettling refugees in 2016 and 2017; Many people began to complain that refugees affected the order of the city. In Rome, hundreds of refugees slept on the streets every night. More people are worried that refugees will pose a threat to the security of Europe.
The fear of refugees began on the first day of 2016. Just as people welcomed the arrival of the New Year, a shocking sexual assault occurred in the square in front of the famous Cologne Cathedral, and thousands of women were sexually harassed. The perpetrators were identified as having the appearance of North Africa and Arabia, and people began to suspect that refugees were involved; In July, a refugee applicant from Afghanistan chopped four people on a German train for terrorist purposes; In October, another refugee from Afghanistan raped and killed a German girl who was friendly to refugees in Freiburg. In December, an Iraqi refugee was accused of raping two female students studying in China. Just before Christmas, a refugee applicant from Tunisia drove a truck into the Christmas market in Berlin, causing 12 deaths. This can’t help but remind people of another tragedy that happened in July last year: a Frenchman of Tunisia origin drove a white truck into the most famous street in Nice, France, and crushed a crowd watching fireworks, killing 84 people.
Psychologist Maslow has a very incisive definition of security. The so-called security refers to a feeling of confidence, security and freedom freed from fear and anxiety. The European people who have experienced all this can no longer be freed from fear and anxiety, and an unprecedented sense of unease is spreading in Europe. Faced with the refugee crisis, EU countries began to split: Hungary hoped to reject the EU’s compulsory allocation of refugees through a referendum, Slovakia resolutely refused Muslim refugees to enter the country, and France explicitly rejected the fixed allocation mechanism proposed by Germany. Although the number of refugees arriving in Europe has greatly decreased after reaching an agreement on the repatriation of refugees with Turkey, European people’s dissatisfaction with refugees is increasing. In the face of enormous pressure, even Germany, which was once the most open to the refugee problem, has made a "sharp right turn". Chancellor Angela Merkel said that the scene of a large number of refugees pouring into Germany as in 2015 will never be allowed to reappear, and the repatriation of applicants who do not meet the refugee standards will be accelerated.
Undeniably, the vast majority of refugees are kind-hearted. They have been devastated by war and left their homes for Europe with a longing for a stable and safe life. They work hard to learn languages and skills, hoping to integrate into society as soon as possible, and are grateful to Europeans for their help. However, there are also a few individuals among the refugees who are bewitched by extreme ideological trends and pose a threat to the security of Europe. As long as this threat does not disappear completely, the gap between refugee groups and European people will not disappear.
Britain’s departure
From the first day of its birth, the European Union has been like a powerful magnet, attracting European countries that have not yet become members to do their best to join. Even Turkey, a country that spans Eurasia and belongs to Islamic civilization in culture, is eager to join the EU. But last summer, a member state got rid of this attraction and announced its withdrawal from the European Union, and this country was actually one of the three most important countries in Europe — — — Britain.
Brexit began with a confident gamble by Cameron. In 2013, Ka Xiang, who is about to participate in the 2015 general election, responded to public opinion and promised to be re-elected, and promised to hold a referendum on the relationship between Britain and the European Union after his election. At that time, no matter public opinion, scholars or even Cameron himself believed that this referendum, like the referendum on Brexit in Scotland, would be nothing more than a formality and doomed to failure.
However, the Scots are still attached to Britain, but the British people are only indifferent to the European Union. Germany’s Der Spiegel called 2016 "the year of accidents". It was not only Trump who was elected president of the United States, but also the British partner who really chose to run away from home. Indeed, Britain does have an "isolated tradition". The status of an island country and its long-term role as an offshore balancer have kept Britain at arm’s length with the European continent for hundreds of years.
In the European Union, Britain has always behaved like a very rebellious student with good grades. For the euro, he said no; For Schengen, he said no; Britain is even more suspicious and extremely negative about the European Union’s demand for member States to cede sovereignty again and again. Some people say that Euroscepticism is an integral part of British civilization, but it is obvious that the reason why the British people finally choose to leave the EU is much more realistic. Since the EU’s eastward expansion at the beginning of this century, a large number of citizens from eastern European countries have poured into western Europe, especially Britain, which has indirectly received more than one million immigrants from eastern Europe in ten years. For the middle and lower classes in Britain, immigrants from Eastern Europe took their jobs and applied for a lot of benefits and allowances. However, they rarely spent money in Britain, but sent money back to their hometown in Eastern Europe. However, the elite financial people believe that the complicated financial supervision regulations of the European Union will seriously affect the competitiveness of London compared with other financial centers such as new york and Hongkong.
There’s an old saying in China, we share weal and woe. When the European debt crisis came, it completely aroused the British people’s long-term dissatisfaction with the EU. At the beginning of 2013, the then Prime Minister David Cameron, in his speech on the prospect of the relationship between Britain and the EU, used a large space to express Britain’s dissatisfaction with being dragged down by the European debt crisis and his concern that the process of European integration might harm Britain’s interests. From this point of view, Britain’s departure is indeed unexpected and reasonable.
It takes only a moment to declare leaving the EU, but the negotiation on leaving the EU is a long and difficult process. The next focus will be on whether Britain can stay in the European single market. The EU’s attitude is very clear. It can stay, but it must accept the four principles of freedom, namely, the free movement of goods, people, capital and business. However, once the four principles are accepted, it seems that the dissatisfaction of the middle and lower classes in Britain with the workers grabbing jobs in Eastern European countries will continue.
The rising right wing
Refugees or Brexit are at best catalysts for the disintegration of Europe. What really poses a fatal threat is the collective rise of right-wing populist parties with Euroscepticism.
Germany’s Choice Party was founded in 2013 with the original purpose of opposing Merkel’s policy of saving the euro. The influx of bees into German refugees allowed this young political party to defeat the old German political parties in several state assembly elections in 2016 and won an unprecedented victory. Mecklenburg — Former Pomeroy is the least developed state in Germany, but it is also the starting point of Merkel’s politics and is considered as her political hometown. However, on September 4th last year, taking advantage of people’s serious dissatisfaction with refugees, Germany chose the party to win nearly 22% of the votes in one fell swoop, surpassing Merkel’s CDU and becoming the second largest political party in Meiqian State Parliament. Merkel, who was attending the G20 summit in Hangzhou at that time, admitted that she was responsible for the election defeat of the CDU.
In Italy, a populist party founded by comedians seven years ago — — — The Five-Star Movement Party won a more direct victory. Last June, Virginia Raj, the candidate recommended by the party, defeated Roberto Giachetti, the candidate recommended by the ruling Democratic Party, with an overwhelming advantage of two-thirds of the votes in the election of the mayor of Rome. At the same time, another candidate of the Five-Star Movement Party also won the election of the mayor of Turin with a clear advantage. In December, due to the strong obstruction of the party, the Italian people rejected the government’s proposal to amend the constitution, which led to the resignation of Prime Minister Renzi.
The famous French far-right party "National Front" is also strong. In the provincial Council election at the beginning of the year, the National Front won more than 25% of the votes. The poll in September showed that Le Pen, the party chairman, would enter the second round of the presidential election. Le Pen said that if he wins the presidential election in the spring of 2017, he will organize a referendum on France’s withdrawal from the EU within six months.
What can be a little relieved is that according to the current situation, in the next ruling cycle, there is no possibility that the major populist parties in Europe will come to power, but it is an indisputable fact that they are constantly rising and becoming bigger. If the refugee problem in Europe is not solved and the European economy remains weak, then one day these right-wing parties will be elected to the government by the people. Perhaps on that day, the life of the EU will really be short.