[Accompanied by Global Times reporter Yang Shasha, Ni Hao, Chen Zishuai and Zhang Hong] "As the core of China’s economy, the export engine has recovered sharply, breaking expectations and boosting people’s hopes that the China government will achieve its growth target this year." The Financial Times commented on the import and export data released by the General Administration of Customs of China on the 13th. The data shows that China’s economy showed a good recovery trend in the first quarter. The total import and export value of goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Reuters quoted experts as saying that China’s export growth soared in March, which was "a surprise" for the market. Global Times reporters interviewed foreign trade enterprises in Zhejiang, Jiangsu and other places and learned that many enterprises have "exploded orders" for export, and these enterprises are full of confidence in the annual export.
"New Three Kinds" Pulls Up Export Growth Rate
According to customs statistics, the total import and export value of China’s goods trade in the first quarter was 9.89 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.8%. Among them, exports reached 5.65 trillion yuan, up 8.4% year-on-year. Imports were 4.24 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%. Lv Daliang, spokesman of the General Administration of Customs and director of the Statistics and Analysis Department, said on the 13th that in January this year, due to the Spring Festival holiday, imports and exports fell by 7%. From negative to positive in February, it increased by 8% in that month, and the year-on-year growth rate increased to 15.5% in March, showing a positive trend month by month. The overall growth in the first quarter was 4.8%, 2.6 percentage points higher than that in the fourth quarter of last year. Lu Daliang concluded that China’s foreign trade import and export showed strong resilience in the first quarter, and the start was stable and positive, which laid the foundation for the realization of foreign trade stability and quality improvement throughout the year.
"China’s exports rebounded sharply," The Wall Street Journal reported on the 13th. According to the data of the General Administration of Customs of China on Thursday, China’s exports increased sharply in March compared with the same period of last year, reversing the decline in the first two months of 2023 and ending the continuous decline since last October. China’s exports rebounded sharply in March, an accident that reflected the growth of demand in Asia and Europe and the improvement of supply chain conditions.
Regionally, ASEAN remained China’s largest trading partner in the first quarter. Data show that the import and export between China and ASEAN in the first quarter was 1.56 trillion yuan, up 16.1% year-on-year. In the same period, China’s import and export to countries along the Belt and Road increased by 16.8%, accounting for 34.6% of the total import and export value.
In terms of products, exports of mechanical and electrical products and labor-intensive products both increased. Among them, in the first quarter, the total export of "new three products" of electric manned vehicles, lithium batteries and solar cells increased by 66.9%, with a year-on-year increase of more than 100 billion yuan, which increased the overall export growth rate by 2 percentage points, further enhancing the pulling force compared with last year.
"China’s export growth soared in March, which surprised the market." Zhang Zhiwei, chief economist of Pinpoint Asset Management Company, was quoted by the South China Morning Post on 13th as saying that analysts had unanimously expected that China’s exports would maintain negative growth in March. Bloomberg reported on the 13th that with the recovery of factory supply, March witnessed the first increase of China’s exports in six months. Lin Ziqiong, a Greater China economist at Societe Generale, told Bloomberg that the latest data showed that the slowdown in external demand was not as worrying as previously thought.
"The order has been placed for three months."
In terms of foreign trade export in the first quarter, Lu Daliang said that private enterprises have been the main force of China’s foreign trade development for four consecutive years. In 2022, the proportion of private enterprises in China’s total import and export value reached 50.9%, and the annual proportion exceeded half for the first time. In the first quarter of this year, the foreign trade of private enterprises continued to maintain a rapid growth trend, with import and export of 5.18 trillion yuan, accounting for 52.4%.
In Hangji, Yangzhou, the "toothbrush capital" of China, "orders are too busy". Tu Xinning, head of Jiangsu Costco Commodity Co., Ltd., told the Global Times that since the beginning of this year, Costco’s orders have surged, reaching 20 million yuan, and the products are very popular overseas. The orders have been placed for three months and have been sent to East Asia, Southeast Asia, Europe, America and the Middle East. "After the test of the epidemic, consumers have a new understanding of oral care and the frequency of changing toothbrushes has increased." Tu Xinning told reporters that the global demand for toothbrushes has grown steadily due to the multiple positive effects such as the recovery of tourism in Southeast Asia.
Zhao Ke, director of Mavericks electric market, told the Global Times reporter that the company has explored overseas markets through operating mode and localization of marketing channels. At present, Mavericks Electric has covered 52 overseas countries and regions through 53 dealers, and has more than 180 flagship stores and specialty stores and more than 1,100 authorized dealers overseas, successfully expanding e-commerce platforms such as Amazon and entering consumer electronics stores in Europe and the United States.
Huang Changchao, president of Yiwu stationery industry association, Zhejiang Province, said in an interview with Global Times on the 13th that according to his understanding, for those China cultural and creative enterprises with old product styles, foreign trade orders did not usher in "explosive growth after the epidemic" as some people expected, with fewer orders and more and more sales. However, the sales of trendy cultural and creative products such as DIY are relatively hot.
The head of the International Trade Department of Baixiang Food told the Global Times reporter on the 13th that in the context of the global economic slowdown, the rise in interest rates in the US dollar, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the increase in sea freight rates have led to a decline in consumers’ income, which has a certain impact on their spending power. However, the overseas business of Baixiang Food has continued to grow. First, the country has given a lot of support to enterprises going to sea. Second, it has cooperated deeply with distributors through various channels to enhance brand influence.
Harris, CEO of Ningbo New Oriental Industry & Trade Co., Ltd. said that some public opinions used the industrial chain transfer and empty containers at the wharf to render China’s foreign trade recession, which was one-sided and could not represent China’s foreign trade as a whole. He believes that differentiation has become the key word of China’s foreign trade export at present, and labor-intensive and substitutable industries are under great pressure, but some industries with high technology content and reflecting the high-quality development of China’s foreign trade are still growing rapidly.
High-quality development
Lv Daliang said that the current high global inflation and weak external demand brought by the growth of major economies have had a direct impact on China’s foreign trade. At the same time, risks such as protectionism and geopolitics have further increased the instability, uncertainty and unpredictability of the global economy, and China’s foreign trade development will face greater difficulties and challenges. However, we must see that China’s economy is strong in resilience, great in potential and full of vitality, and its long-term positive fundamentals remain unchanged. I believe that with the continuous overall improvement of China’s economic operation, the positive momentum of foreign trade is expected to continue further.
Huang Changchao recently returned from an inspection tour in Indonesia. "We visited Indonesia’s wholesale markets and large shopping malls. After three years of epidemic, the Indonesian market has also undergone some changes." Huang Changchao said that generally speaking, Indonesia’s wholesale market sells traditional stationery products, and the products are on the low end, while large shopping malls sell relatively high-end cultural and creative products. "It is generally felt that the value and quality of Indonesia’s low-end products are rising, so we just said that we must work hard on the products, otherwise we will not be able to open the Southeast Asian market."
With regard to the follow-up trend of China’s foreign trade, Chen Fengying, former director and researcher of the Institute of World Economics of China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, told the Global Times reporter on the 13th that the low growth of the world economy led to a decline in purchasing power, which was a great risk for trade activities, but it was an opportunity for China. First, China’s goods are cheap and good, and their popularity will be enhanced; Second, in terms of digital trade, China is fully capable of occupying the middle and lower markets.
CNBC quoted Goldman Sachs analysts as predicting that China’s economy will grow by 6% this year, which may be higher than the government’s target of around 5%, supported by strong import and export data.
Lian Ping, chief economist of Zhixin Investment, said in an interview with the Global Times reporter that from the import and export data in the first quarter, this year’s exports may have a small positive contribution to the economy. If consumption picks up and investment continues to grow, the GDP growth rate is expected to be a little higher this year. "Our initial expectation was 5.5%, but now it may be adjusted to more than 6%."