Big data shows that 15-year-old "double 11" is a bit "cold".
According to Baidu Index, the search index of "double 11" was on the rise from 2011 to 2015, and it basically maintained its popularity in 2016, but it dropped significantly in 2017, only slightly rising in 2019, when live e-commerce rose, and then falling all the way, making 2022 the coldest "double 11" in the past 10 years. It should be said that this year’s "double 11" heat is slightly higher than last year, but judging from the trend, its highlight moment has passed.
Baidu index screenshot, provided by the author.
From the outside, after the rise of live e-commerce and social e-commerce, strategies such as anchor welfare and 10 billion subsidies have made low prices run through the year. Statistics show that two-thirds of Tmall’s days in a year are shopping festivals, and consumers have long been "desensitized" to big promotions; From the inside, the negative impression of false promotions such as raising prices first and then lowering prices, and getting together for half a day is only one yuan and eighty cents cheaper, has killed consumers’ passion and trust in big promotion. If we catch up with some consumers who are not well off, it will inevitably get cold.
However, this does not mean that "double 11" is completely cold. Besides big data, there is another hot "double 11"-
There are more and more participants. This year, JD.COM Live and Xiaohongshu e-commerce have entered the market, and the record is good. Take Xiaohongshu as an example. During the "double 11" period, the number of e-commerce orders of Xiaohongshu was 3.8 times that of the same period of last year, and the amount of powder broadcast in stores was 14.2 times that of the same period of last year.
The value brought to businesses is becoming more and more accurate. Take Tmall as an example. As of 0: 00 on November 11th, Taobao Tmall has brought more than 100 million new members to merchants, and the turnover of 38,000 brands has increased by more than 100% year-on-year.
Some consumers don’t pay attention on the surface, but their actions are sincere. According to the data of the State Post Bureau, from November 1 to 11, the national postal express delivery enterprises collected 5.264 billion express parcels, a year-on-year increase of 23.22%.
The figures show that "double 11" is still the most important outbreak period of various brands in a year, and it is the training ground with the most concentrated infrastructure such as supply chain, cloud service and logistics. Today’s "double 11" peak may be the norm in the future. "double 11" has been transformed into a "concern war" and a "value war". Every November, people always think about whether to buy something. For this reason, "double 11" should not be underestimated.
Promotion information of "Double Eleven" shopping festival on an e-commerce website. Photo by Xu Qin (Xinhua News Agency)
Among all the data, there is a set of data that deserves special attention: this year, in double 11, there are 1,606 new brands that have opened stores in Tmall for less than three years, winning the champion of new trend category, which means that as long as consumers are treated with care, there will be a lot of market opportunities. In Xiaohongshu, there are also 30 brands located in the new track, and their products cover furniture, accessories, bags, new Chinese clothes and so on. Tracks are constantly emerging and brands are changing rapidly. Such a market is full of vitality and the competition is extremely fierce.
However, no matter how difficult it is, there is still a chance. Apart from China, it is hard to imagine any other market that can breed so many new brands in a short time. This is the resilience of China’s economy, and it is also the strength of a consumer market with a population of more than 1.4 billion.
There’s no need to talk bad about "double 11" now. Even at the end of the attention cycle, there is a long tail effect.
How "double 11" behaves next depends on itself. This year, the General Administration of Market Supervision once again issued the "double 11" Guide to Promoting Compliance, emphasizing nine aspects, such as eliminating price fraud, strengthening advertising review, preventing counterfeiting and resolving consumer disputes, which can be called the "longevity guide" of "double 11". "double 11" should be able to accompany consumers in China for several years if we can listen to users’ voices, resolutely implement regulatory regulations and firmly guarantee quality services.
(Author She Ying), the original title "Don’t rush to sing" double 11 ""
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